In the recent report by Smithers, titled 'The Future of Global Corrugated Packaging to 2029', significant insights into the corrugated board and containerboard market have been unveiled. Authored by Stephen Harrod, the report offers a comprehensive overview of the market’s trajectory and key trends.
The containerboard market experienced a notable decline, with consumption dropping by almost seven per cent in 2022, followed by a further decrease of over 8.5 per cent in 2023. Despite fluctuations, the market value of converted boards was estimated at just over $228 billion in 2023, reflecting a decrease from its 2017 value.
Across 2024-29, demand for corrugated packaging will vary across the 13 different end-use sectors that Smithers profiles. The packaging and transportation of food products accounted for over 46 per cent of the consumption of corrugated packaging material during 2023, a relatively constant level since 2016, but is expected to change slightly to 47 per cent by 2029. This will include a new surge for corrugated grades for processed foods, although growth in fresh food and produce will be slower, and electrical goods are expected to have the most attractive volume growth of all products.
The report delves into the factors driving this decline, focusing on changing environmental regulations and their impact on market dynamics. It also explores trends such as void fill, rightsizing and lightweighting, which have contributed to the market’s contraction.
The report says many major containerboard suppliers have already invested in increased capacity, which will manifest in low operating rates across much of Smithers' forecast period. This is prompting moves that will redraw the commercial landscape for corrugated, with four of the six largest converters worldwide – Smurfit Kappa/WestRock (Sept 2023); DS Smith/International Paper (April 2024) – pursuing multi-billion-dollar mergers. Other firms are rationalising operations; delaying further investment, taking extra downtime, or even closing older mills and box plants.
Key questions addressed in the report include how the market will respond to evolving environmental regulations and where the impact of these regulations will be most keenly felt. Additionally, it provides insights into the timeline for the introduction of new products across various end-uses and identifies key innovators driving product development.
The report caters to a broad audience, including raw material suppliers, packaging manufacturers, end-users in the packaging sector, as well as industry consultants and analysts seeking comprehensive insights into the corrugated packaging market.
Multiple opportunities are arising for corrugated materials. Their recyclability means they are increasingly being favoured by brands and legislators, not just in transit, but also consumer-facing primary packs. This is pushing converters towards finer, premium flute grades that can compete with folding cartons in sectors such as cosmetics, confectionery, and consumer electronics.
Legislation such as the EU’s recently approved Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) is opening other opportunities. The PPWR will ban certain single-use plastic formats by 2030, including for smaller volume produce packs, and collation films for multipack beverages and food. Similar potential exists in food-service applications, is effective non-PFAS oil and grease resistance coatings can be integrated into existing corrugated lines.
Smithers’ research methodology combines extensive primary and secondary research, including targeted interviews with industry stakeholders and analysis of government statistics and trade organisation data. Smithers provides deep insights derived from consistent monitoring of the packaging industry by utilising independent market modelling processes.
Stephen Harrod brings over a decade of experience in the paper and packaging industry to the table. With a background in building market research companies and roles with industry giants like Mondi and JAC Labels, Harrod has been authoring reports for Smithers since 2006, focusing on global paper and packaging markets.
For those interested in detailed insights, the full report can be downloaded from the Smithers website.
